Economics • Analytics • Strategy

NishidhiThulkar

Exploring the intersection of data, markets, and decision-making — from India to Singapore to California.

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About Me

Five countries.
One mission.

I’m an Economics major at California State University, Long Beach (graduating December 2026) with a background spanning five countries — India, UAE, Singapore, Japan, and the United States.

My work sits at the intersection of economic analysis, financial modeling, and business strategy. I’ve built revenue forecasting models that improved prediction accuracy by 20%, supported go-to-market strategies generating $1M+, and contributed valuation frameworks behind $750K ARR in enterprise deals.

Beyond analytics, I’m passionate about the beauty and skincare industry, combining deep domain knowledge of consumer trends with rigorous economic analysis. I’m particularly interested in how consumer analytics translates to investment thinking: understanding which brands are gaining share, which pricing strategies drive margin expansion, and how social media trends predict quarterly revenue before the numbers are reported.

India

Born

UAE

Early years

Singapore

2015–2021

Japan

Cultural immersion

United States

2021–present

IgotintoeconomicsbecauseIwantedtounderstandwhythingscostwhattheycost.ThatcuriositytookmefromstudyingmonetarypolicytobuildingmachinelearningmodelstotrackingskincareingredientsonReddit.Thecommonthreadisdata.Ilikefindingthepatternthateveryoneelsemissed,thenfiguringoutwhatitactuallymeans.

$0M+

GTM Revenue Supported

Market-entry strategy at Atlantic

0%

Forecast Accuracy Gain

Driver-based revenue model

$0K

ARR in Deals Analyzed

Enterprise due diligence

0

Countries

India, UAE, Singapore, Japan, US

Python
SQL
Tableau
Financial Modeling
Econometrics
Machine Learning
DCF Valuation
Revenue Forecasting
Market Sizing
Data Visualization
Statistical Analysis
Consumer Analytics
Credit Risk
Excel (Advanced)
scikit-learn
Python
SQL
Tableau
Financial Modeling
Econometrics
Machine Learning
DCF Valuation
Revenue Forecasting
Market Sizing
Data Visualization
Statistical Analysis
Consumer Analytics
Credit Risk
Excel (Advanced)
scikit-learn
Python
SQL
Tableau
Financial Modeling
Econometrics
Machine Learning
DCF Valuation
Revenue Forecasting
Market Sizing
Data Visualization
Statistical Analysis
Consumer Analytics
Credit Risk
Excel (Advanced)
scikit-learn
Python
SQL
Tableau
Financial Modeling
Econometrics
Machine Learning
DCF Valuation
Revenue Forecasting
Market Sizing
Data Visualization
Statistical Analysis
Consumer Analytics
Credit Risk
Excel (Advanced)
scikit-learn

Featured Projects

What I’ve Built

e.l.f. Beauty (ELF): Equity Research Analysis

Equity Research · DCF · Comps

01

Initiated coverage on e.l.f. Beauty with an Outperform rating. Built a DCF valuation model and comparable company analysis, identifying ELF as undervalued relative to its growth trajectory and social-media-driven brand equity.

Methodology

SEC 10-K analysis → revenue build → WACC estimation → DCF with terminal value → trading comps (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E) → price target derivation

ExcelPythonyfinanceSEC EDGAR

Key Findings

ELF trading at discount to growth-adjusted peers despite 3-year revenue CAGR of ~30%

Social media marketing efficiency 3-4x better than legacy brands on cost-per-impression basis

International expansion represents untapped ~60% revenue upside vs. current U.S.-heavy mix

Read Full Analysis

Fed Policy Transmission — A VAR Analysis

Macro Econometrics · Time Series · Python

02

Vector Autoregression model analyzing how Federal Reserve rate decisions propagate through the economy. Studies transmission to consumer spending, housing markets, and employment using 24 years of FRED macro data. Includes impulse response functions, Granger causality tests, variance decomposition, and structural break analysis around COVID-19.

Methodology

ADF stationarity tests → optimal lag selection (AIC/BIC) → VAR estimation → orthogonalized IRFs with 95% CI → Chow structural break test at 2020-Q1

Pythonstatsmodelspandasfredapimatplotlibscipy

Key Findings

Rate hikes transmit to consumer spending in 2–3 quarters with 89% directional accuracy

Housing starts respond 40% faster to rate changes post-2020 vs. pre-COVID

Fed Funds → CPI transmission shows 4-quarter lag with 67% of variance explained by 8 quarters

Read Full Analysis

Consumer Credit Default Prediction

Machine Learning · Credit Risk · Python

03

Full ML pipeline predicting consumer loan defaults on 2M+ Lending Club records. Compares logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost with SMOTE resampling for class imbalance, hyperparameter tuning via GridSearchCV, and SHAP-based model interpretability — the same methodology used by credit risk teams at major banks.

Methodology

Feature engineering (15+ features) → SMOTE oversampling → stratified train/test → GridSearchCV tuning → ROC/AUC evaluation → SHAP feature importance

Pythonscikit-learnXGBoostSHAPSQLpandasimbalanced-learn

Key Findings

XGBoost achieved 0.87 AUC, outperforming logistic regression (0.79) by 12pp in minority-class recall

SHAP analysis: debt-to-income ratio and revolving utilization are top 2 default predictors

Credit score alone explains only 31% of default variance — behavioral features are more predictive

Read Full Analysis

Skincare & Beauty Trends Dashboard

SQL · Data Visualization · Consumer Analytics

04

Interactive analytics dashboard tracking 25+ skincare ingredients across Google Trends, Reddit, and product launch data. SQL pipeline processes 10K+ data points into trend curves, seasonal heatmaps, and sentiment analysis — combining deep industry knowledge with data engineering.

Methodology

Google Trends API + Reddit PRAW scraping → SQLite ETL → ingredient NLP extraction → sentiment classification → Streamlit dashboard with Plotly

SQLTableauPythonStreamlitPlotlypandasBeautifulSoup

Key Findings

Ceramide and peptide search demand surging 140% and 95% YoY respectively

Ingredient demand signals appear 2–3 months before major brand product launches

Reddit sentiment is a leading indicator: positive-sentiment ingredients see 2.1x faster adoption

Read Full Analysis

TikTok Beauty Creator Growth Analysis

Creator Operations · Growth Strategy · Data Analysis

05

Tracked 50 beauty/skincare TikTok creators over 3 months to identify what drives growth. Built a creator growth playbook with phased strategies and operational recommendations for a PGC team.

Methodology

Manual tracking of 50 creators → engagement/growth metrics → cohort analysis by tier → growth playbook → ops recommendations

Google SheetsTikTok AnalyticsPythonpandas

Key Findings

Creators posting 5-7x/week grew 3.2x faster than 1-2x/week

GRWM content had 40% higher completion rate than tutorials

Comment response within 2 hours correlated with 2.1x engagement

Read Full Analysis

Personal Budget Optimizer

Python · Streamlit · Personal Finance

06

Simple Streamlit app that tracks monthly income, spending by category, and savings rate. Built it for myself after realizing I had no visibility into where my money was going as a student. Calculates optimal budget allocation using the 50/30/20 rule and compares against actual spending.

Methodology

CSV bank statement import → pandas category mapping → 50/30/20 rule engine → Plotly spend-vs-budget visualizations → monthly trend tracking

PythonStreamlitpandasPlotly

Key Findings

Identified $340/month in unnecessary subscriptions and food delivery spending

Improved personal savings rate from 8% to 22% within three months of tracking

Food delivery alone accounted for 18% of total spending — more than rent utilities

Read Full Analysis

What Makes a 5-Star Product? Sephora Review Analysis

NLP · Python · Web Scraping

07

Scraped 15K+ Sephora product reviews to analyze what language patterns distinguish 5-star from 1-star skincare products. Used TF-IDF and basic sentiment analysis to identify which product attributes (texture, scent, packaging, results timeline) correlate most strongly with high ratings.

Methodology

BeautifulSoup scraping → text preprocessing & tokenization → TF-IDF vectorization → sentiment classification (NLTK VADER) → attribute correlation analysis

PythonBeautifulSoupscikit-learnNLTKpandas

Key Findings

Products mentioning 'results within 2 weeks' received 40% more 5-star reviews

Texture complaints were the #1 predictor of 1-star ratings across all skincare categories

Packaging and 'aesthetic' mentions correlated with higher ratings independent of product efficacy

Read Full Analysis

Experience

Where I’ve Made Impact

Business Analyst Intern

Atlantic Consulting Group

Jun – Sep 2025

Tampa, FL

01
  • Conducted bottom-up market sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM) for a B2B SaaS vertical, synthesizing competitor financials and pricing data to model a $50M addressable market and support a go-to-market strategy that generated $1M in its first 6 months
  • Built a multi-scenario driver-based revenue model in Excel (base/bull/bear) with sensitivity analysis on 4 key assumptions, improving forecast accuracy by 20% and cutting re-forecasting from 2 weeks to 3 days
  • Conducted financial due diligence and unit economics analysis (LTV, CAC, payback period) for 3 enterprise targets, contributing valuation frameworks that supported deals totaling $750K ARR
  • Designed a KPI tracking system monitoring pipeline conversion, revenue run-rate, and delivery velocity across 4 teams — cutting cycle time 15% and lifting retention scores 12%

Business Consultant Intern

RNR Marine Consultants & Engineers

Jun – Sep 2024

Singapore

02
  • Built an automated financial tracking system in Excel (VBA) for 5 concurrent marine projects totaling $2M+, reducing invoice cycle time by 30% and improving cash flow visibility
  • Developed project P&L dashboards consolidating cost, revenue, and margin data via SQL queries; delivered weekly budget variance reports enabling $200K reallocation across projects
  • Managed financial deliverables across engineering, legal, and procurement — all 5 projects delivered on-time and within 5% of budget targets

Mathematics & Business Instructor

Teach For India

Sep – Nov 2022

Mumbai, India

03
  • Designed data-driven curriculum assessments for 40+ students, tracking score progression weekly to drive 25% improvement in average assessment scores
  • Analyzed engagement patterns to identify drop-offs; implemented interventions increasing class participation from 55% to 85%

Sales Representative

Sephora

Jul 2022 – Jan 2023

Singapore

04
  • Analyzed point-of-sale data and customer purchasing patterns across skincare and cosmetics categories to develop segment-specific recommendation strategies; contributed to 23% category sales increase over 6-month tenure

Education

Academic Journey

CSULB

California State University, Long Beach

B.S. in Economics — GPA: 3.7

Expected Dec 2026

Econometrics · Financial Economics · Business Statistics · Managerial Economics

FC

Foothill College

A.A. in Economics

2021 – 2025

Los Altos, California

Skills & Expertise

What I Bring to the Table

Technical

PythonSQLTableauExcel (Advanced)VBAGitPowerPointscikit-learnstatsmodelsGoogle SheetsNotion

Analysis

Financial ModelingEconometricsMachine LearningDCF ValuationStatistical AnalysisData VisualizationRevenue ForecastingMarket SizingProject Management

Domain

Consumer AnalyticsBeauty & CosmeticsCredit RiskMacro Economics

Leadership

BEC — Business Economics & Entrepreneurship

Club Secretary

Organized workshops on networking fundamentals and interview readiness for professional development.

Women in STEM

Financial Advisor

Championed initiatives supporting women in STEM while delivering financial advisory services and fostering diversity.

Beyond the Resume

What I’m Exploring

📚

Currently Reading

  • Thinking, Fast and Slow

    Daniel Kahneman

  • Brandsplaining

    Cunningham & Roberts

  • Freakonomics

    Levitt & Dubner

🧠

Interested In

  • Behavioral Economics

  • Skincare Science

  • Macro Policy

  • Consumer Psychology

📡

Following

  • @beautyprofessor

    YouTube

  • @theeconomist

    Instagram

  • The Pudding

    Data Viz Blog

  • Money Stuff

    Matt Levine

  • Hyram

    YouTube

Writing

Ideas & Insights

Research EssayMarch 202610 min read

The Hidden Economics of Social Media

How algorithms reshape consumer behavior and markets. Covering the behavioral economics of infinite scroll, attention as currency, information asymmetry between platforms and users, and the $24 billion influencer marketing economy.

Behavioral EconomicsInfluencer MarketingConsumer Analytics
Read
Research EssayFebruary 20269 min read

Why Your Skincare Routine Is an Economic Decision

The economics of the $670 billion beauty industry. Price discrimination from The Ordinary to La Mer, ingredient commoditization, the clean beauty premium, and how marketing creates perceived value worth more than the product itself.

Price DiscriminationBeauty IndustryConsumer Behavior
Read
Research EssayDecember 202511 min read

Credit Scores Are Broken. Here’s What Actually Predicts Default.

The history and flaws of FICO, what machine learning models trained on Lending Club data reveal about default predictors, and the racial and socioeconomic biases baked into the system that determines who gets credit in America.

Credit RiskMachine LearningFinancial Equity
Read
Research EssayOctober 202512 min read

The Economics of K-Beauty: How South Korea Built a $10B Export Machine

South Korea's cosmetics export strategy as deliberate industrial policy, the 10-step routine as category creation, ingredient-first branding vs. lifestyle branding, and how a country of 52 million outsells American beauty companies on their home turf.

International TradeBeauty IndustryIndustrial Policy
Read
Behind the ScenesApril 20265 min read

How I Built This Website

An economics student with zero frontend experience, an AI coding assistant, and a lot of trial and error. What I learned about building things with tools I didn't understand six months ago.

AI ToolsWeb DevelopmentLearning
Read
Personal EssayMarch 20264 min read

What Retail Taught Me About Operations

Sephora stores are more operationally sophisticated than most people realize. What six months on the floor taught me about systems, cross-functional coordination, and why the best operations are invisible.

OperationsRetailProject Management
Read

Get in Touch

Let’s Build
Something Together

Whether it’s a collaboration, a question about my work, or a conversation about economics.